No big surprises with Thursday night’s first round of American Idol eliminations, but at this point, there really shouldn’t be.

We lost Ashley Rodriguez, Jenell Wheeler, Joe Munoz and Tyler Grady.

Ashley, Jenell and Tyler were all among the early favorites during the auditions, but are classic examples of why those January snippets can be so misleading. When we had the opportunity to see them live on stage this week, it was painfully obvious they were overmatched and in way over their head.

We never really saw much of Joe until Tuesday night, and that was probably a good thing. He seemed to be a nice kid, but like most of this year’s guys was borderline terrible with a microphone in his hand.

I was mildly surprised that Lacey Brown survived after that catastrophic version of Stevie Nicks’ “Landslide,” but I think enough of the voters remember her Hollywood Week rednition of “What A Wonderful World.” She probably has one more week left.

Among the boys, Tim Urban probably deserved to be booted a little more than Joe, but we’re splitting hairs here. Besides, it might be entertaining to see how mad Tim will be next week. He might be this year’s Sanjaya Malakar. Someone has to be the whipping boy.

Lilly Scott

IDOL NATION TOP 10 RANKINGS

1. Crystal Bowersox: Can you imagine what the first week would have been without her?

2. Casey James: Even my wife was paying attention when he sang Wednesday night.

3. Andrew Garcia: Week two will be pivotal for the stay-at-home dad. We need to see something a little different from him.

4. Lilly Scott: I’m not sure how well she will do when we get to something like “Motown Week,” but I think it will be interesting to find out.

5. Siobhan Magnus: I think I may have been guilty of underestimating her talent. (On the plus side, I can now spell her first name without having to check a previous story.)

6. Didi Benami: The best is yet to come.

7. Michelle Delamor: She could be this year’s Syesha Mercado.

8. Katelyn Epperly: It’s obvious she has not had much professional training, but there is definitely some distinctive raw talent here.

Michelle Delamor

9. Lee Dewyze: It looks like he is the only guy outside of James and Garcia who has any sort of idea what to actually do when onstage.

10. Paige Miles: This year’s Vonzell Solomon.

On the bubble: Katie Stevens.

IDOL THOUGHTS

There were 24 million votes cast this week, according to host Ryan Seacrest.

The dreaded group number returned for the results show. Yawnnnn …

Last year’s champ, Kris Allen, and fourth-place finisher Allison Iraheta, both performed. I still think Allison will be a huge star someday. Remember, she’s still a teenager. It was interesting to see Kris again as a much more polished and confident performer.

For those counting, Randy has used the word “dawg” six times so far since the round of 24 started. The Dawg also only thrown one “check it out” at us to date.

Along with about a dozen of the contestants, Ellen also needs to pick up her game. She looked extremely promising during Hollywood week, but she was hard to listen to Tuesday and Wednesday nights. I should have counted how many times she used the term “great.”

FROM AROUND THE IDOL NATION

From former American Idol finalist Blake Lewis, USA Today.com: Casey James summoned forth Kara DioGuardi’s inner cougar, getting her to grin and wave her arms like a giddy schoolgirl when he let his hair down and sang Bryan Adams’ “Heaven.”

Alex Lambert

From nymag.com: Though he at times looked like he was about to flee the stage in tears, Alex Lambert impressed and shocked America by not completely choking. Plus, Ellen is right: You have to respect him for refusing to give up on his mullet despite all common sense.

From Reality TV magazine: Members of the band Coldplay are trying to persuade Simon Cowell to make a guest appearance on their tour and they actually hope that he will criticize their performance. The band members are huge fans of the American Idol judge and love his mocking remarks.Coldplay frontman Chris Martin is hoping to convince Cowell to record a video segment for their upcoming concerts. “I’ve never met Simon, but I keep wanting him to do a bit in our concert next year,” Martin said.

From Michael Slezak, Entertainment Weekly: Okay, so I know it’s only week one of the American Idol semifinals, and I’m aware that patience is a virtue, but yikes! I’m slightly scared (possibly even scurr’d) that the first 24 performances of season 9 are an omen of 13 long and arduous weeks ahead. I mean, seriously, when the judges are scrambling to heap praise on hapless Alex Lambert — possibly the most petrified Idol contestant since Garrett Haley — you know there’s been trouble in casting paradise. And with Jermaine Purifory, J.B. Ahfua, Angela Martin, and Tasha Layton watching from their couches, is it possible we’ve accidentally stumbled into casting hell? And yet I know in the back of my brain that we dance this dance every Idol season: Staring deeply into our television sets and wondering “How many seasons can this show sustain before it all goes kaput?” But the cold hard evidence tells us that even standout Idol contestants sometimes need a one-week pass before they really bring the brilliance. Look back at season 7 of Idol: David Archuleta didn’t break out “Imagine” till week two. In season 4, Bo Bice didn’t really look like a true contender till his sophomore effort, the Allman Bros’ “Whipping Post.” I need to remind myself to just chillax and repeat my daily anthem: It’s only week one, it’s going to be okay. It’s only week one, it’s going to be okay. It’s only week one, it’s going to be okay. Of course, if week two is this much of a hot, buttered wreck, then I’m hitting the panic button.

Do you want the good news or bad news first? Let’s start with the good.

Casey James elevated himself to an entirely different level Wednesday night, not only shooting past the much-heralded Andrew Garcia as the new man to beat in the guys’ competition of American Idol, but — dare we say it? — a bonafide threat to Crystal Bowersox from the distaff side.

Casey James

Garcia performed well, but was barely in the same league as James, who completely grasped the concept of you don’t get a second chance to make a first impression. This was the opening round of the finals and there’s no sense saving any bullets.

James’ performance saved what was an abysmal night overall by the guys. It was OMG bad, almost pitiful. And if we’re being brutally honest, it’s not going to get much better for this half of the competition in the weeks ahead. Subtract James, Garcia, maybe Lee Dewyze and possibly Aaron Kelly and there isn’t much here to work with, friends.

This might seem like a huge contradiction to a statement I made about a week ago, concerning how this will be the best finals (top 12) ever. I still believe that, but in a slightly reduced fashion. The final six girls, headed by Bowersox, will still be amazing — no question. Ditto James and Garcia from the boys, but until we get to that point, there will be some excruciating nights — like Wednesday.

Maybe we can petition Idol to eliminate all the guys except James and Garcia on Thursday night and get us that much closer to where we want to be. Otherwise, just record the guys’ nights and fast forward to the performances James and Garcia. Delete the rest.

Here’s Wednesday’s rundown:

THE BEST

1. Casey James: He could not have picked a more perfect song than Bryan Adams’ “Heaven.”James has the look, the talent and a likability factor that is completely off the charts. We want to hear him sing.  We want him to succeed. We want to be his friend. We want him to come over on Saturday afternoons in September and watch Ohio State football. He can mail it in for the next two weeks. Book him for the final 12. In fact, book him for the championship round against Bowersox. You read it here first. Key comments:

Kara: “I didn’t recognize you with your shirt on.”

Ellen: “I could feel Kara undressing you with her eyes.”

Randy: “I like your swagger.”

Simon: “You absolutely chose the right song. This was the best performance I have heard from you.”

2. Andrew Garcia: On many nights at this stage of the game, Garcia would have won the night with his acoustic version of “Sugar We’re Going Down” by Fallout Boy. But not on this night. I hate to say it because I really like this guy, but I sense he may have trouble evolving from his somewhat predictable shell. Key comments:

Simon: “I was disappointed. The performance was too serious, too indulgent … I’m really disappointed.”

Randy: “The arrangement was really strange. Go back to being you.”

THE BORDERLINE

3. Lee Dewyze: He might be a legitimate sleeper to reach the final 10. He’s not in the same league as James or Garcia, but he’s much better than I originally thought. He sang “Chasing Cars” by Snow Patrol. Key comment:

Simon: This guy is a naturally good singer.”

Lee: “I never want to lose this feeling. I want it for the rest of my life.”

Alex Lambert

4. Aaron Kelly: There’s also some potential here, but he’s just 16 and so unfamiliar with his surroundings. He’s not comfortable on stage, and he has to lose that constant frown. Key comment:

Simon: “I absolutely think 100 percent you’ll be here next week.”

5. Alex Lambert: He has one of the most intriguing voices of the season, but it was painful to watch him on stage. He admitted he has only performed live three or four times, in front of no more than 20 or so people. Key comment:

Simon: “That was the most uncomfortable performance of the night.”

THE DISASTERS

There is absolutely no need to even offer comments on any of the following:

6. Michael Lynche
7. Todrick Hall
8. Jermaine Sellers
9. John Park
10. Tyler Grady
11. Joe Munoz
12. Tim Urban

Park and Grady were especially disappointing after what we saw in the auditions, and Urban was unbelievable dreadful, one of the worst finals performances ever.

COMING UP

In Friday’s blog, we’ll have a wrap on the first four contestants to be eliminated and a revised Top 10 overall performers. Will Crystal or Casey be No. 1?

IDOL THOUGHTS

Haeley Vaughn is the first 2010 poster child for the www.votefortheworst.com Web site.

Two male and two female contestants will be eliminated each Thursday night through March 11, setting the stage for the final 12.

Kara has seemed more relaxed this season, and has obviously bonded with Simon, Wonder if Paula is jealous?

Speaking of Paula, she has denied rumors she will be part of Oprah Winfrey’s new cable network OWN.

FROM AROUND THE IDOL NATION

Crystal Bowersox

From Ann Donahue, Billboard.com: Oh, the pressure of being the presumptive favorite going in. But dang, it’s no wonder that’s the case because Crystal Bowersox is just so cool. Loved the guitar, loved the harmonica, loved the momma bear “I’m only doing this for my kid” attitude. And a perfect song for her. Maybe, just maybe, I’d even allow her to sing Janis in later rounds.

From EW.com: Winners of American Idol have never failed to earn less than $1 million in the year after their season’s end. According to the New York Times, the show promises substantial financial rewards to winners regardless of how many records they sell. Last year’s winner, Kris Allen, has earned $650,000, an amount which reflects the minimum a winner would earn including performance fees and merchandising royalties, “as well as other opportunities.” Top five finalists are likely to earn $100,000 from the show, and Top 12 contestants are guaranteed several thousand dollars. The details emerged from copies of Season 8 contracts filed under laws requiring court approval of entertainment-industry deals with minors Allison Iraheta and Jasmine Murray. Executives at 19 Entertainment declined to comment on the contracts.

Simon Cowell

From PopEater.com: Simon Cowell has proven to be many things, but foolish has never really been one of them. So it should be no surprise that as things get more serious with his new girlfriend, Simon won’t even consider walking down the aisle unless there’s a pre-nup in place. Way to protect your hundreds of millions, Simon! “Simon has made it clear to Mezhgan that he will not be walking down the aisle unless a pre-nup has been signed,” a friend of Simon’s tells me. “He is in love, he hasn’t lost his mind.”

From the Los Angeles Times: All is normal in the world again as Fox’s American Idol beat NBC’s Olympic coverage Tuesday night in the ratings race. After losing last Wednesday to the Olympics, the first time in six years that Idol lost, the talent show made a strong comeback. From 8 p.m. to 10 p.m., Fox averaged almost 24 million viewers and a 8.9 rating in the adults 18-49 demographic (each rating point in that demographic equals 1.3 million viewers). NBC averaged 20.8 million viewers and a 5.05 rating in the 18-49 demographic going head-to-head against American Idol and overall had 21.2 million viewers and a 5.4 rating in the demographic. While the Olympics were back in second place last night, NBC points out that it has closed the gap with American Idol from the 2006 Winter Games. “American Idol deserves applause. It’s an absolute juggernaut that went undefeated for six years and is now 223-1; we are just happy to be the 1,” said NBC Sports Senior Vice President Mike McCarley.

Siobhan Magnus: Who saw that coming?

Thank goodness Crystal Bowersox and a couple of her friends showed up Tuesday night.

For all the hype the girls have been receiving during this year’s Idol prelims, they fell on their collective face, for the exception of Bowersox, Lilly Scott and — who saw this one coming? — Siobhan Magnus.

Bowersox, Scott and Magnus were three separate breaths of fresh air on a night filled with disappointment, accented by what-were-they-thinking song choices and more off keys than the Vienna Boys Choir entering puberty.

THE BEST

1. Crystal Bowersox: Seriously, the girl could sing movie credits and blow me away. She gave us ”Hand In My Pocket” by Alannis Morrisette and came across as this crazy, unique version of Dylan, Joplin and Etheridge. I can’t wait to watch her develop as the series advances. Key comments:

Randy: “I love your originality as an artist. I’m a fan.”

Kara: “You were good, but you have greatness in you.”

2. Lilly Scott: Welcome to contender status, Lilly. I love the voice, interpretive ability, crazy hair and eyes. She’s quirky and oh so interesting. “Fixing A Hole” by the Beatles was her song choice. Who knew? Like Bowersox, I’m going to look forward to her every week. Key comment:

Ellen: “You have such a distinctive voice.”

3. Siobhan Magnus: What a rendition of Chris Isaak’s “Wicked Game” … wow. I totally underestimated this one. She was born with that same strange gene that Bowersox and Scott possess, the one that allows her stand out from the crowd — in a good way. But that nose ring makes me nervous. Key comment:

Kara: “You’re really in the moment when you are singing.”

THE BORDERLINE

4. Didi Benami: I’m giving Didi a mulligan on this one. “The Way I Am” by Ingrid Michaelson would not have been that bad of a choice if it had been a month into the competition. On a night when you want to make a distinct impression this did not. But I still see great potential here. Key comment:

Simon: “I thought the song was dreary.”

5. Michelle Delamor: She looked great and checked in with an above-average “Fallen” by Alicia Keys. I’d classify her opening night as a second-tier surprise. Key comment:

Ellen: “Now that was fantastic.”

6. Katelyn Epperly: Mildly disappointing with “Oh Darlin’” by the Beatles, Epperly has the “it” factor that will save her. There were more rough edges than I expected here, but the potential is obvious. Key comment:

Simon: “You’re going to need an awful lot of work, but I like you.”

7. Paige Miles: She didn’t sing “All Right Now” by Free poorly, it was simply predictable. She was the only one of the 12 girls we did not know much about coming in and I still feel Like I don’t know much about her. Key comment:

Simon: “Out of all the girls you have the best voice.” (I think he may retract that next week.)

8. Katie Stevens: What … what … what was she thinking by choosing “Felling Good” by Michael Buble? I found myself on the same wavelength as all of the judges. Katie, you’re 17, not 71. Key comment:

Ellen: “I want to see you be 17.”

9. Jenell Wheeler: She tackled a song her style does not suit her at all — “What About Love” by Heart, a power ballad. Jenell is more of a Maria Muldaur type and should never again try and cover something by the Wilson sisters. Key comment:

Randy: “The song choice didn’t work, but I still got vibes for you.”

THE BAD

10. Haeley Vaughn: Whew! John and George are turning over in their graves and Ringo and Paul are wondering if they made a mistake by granting Idol the rights to all of those Beatles songs. Haeley gave us her version of “I Want To Hold Your Hand” by the Beatles and it was reminiscent of that (in)famous country version of ”Eight Days A Week” by Kristy Lee Cook two years ago. Key comment:

Simon: “It was a complete and utter mess.” (Yeah, pretty much.)

Lacey Brown: The best thing you could say was she had nice hair.

THE DISASTERS

11. Ashley Rodriguez: How the mighty have fallen. One of the pre-round of 24 favorites, Ashley was … umm … well, horrible. I don’t think even Paula Abdul could have found anything nice to say about her interpretation of “Happy” by Leona Lewis. Key comment:

Kara: There were definitely moments that were not good. (A lot of them.)

12. Lacey Brown: She was billed as a dark horse title contender. Bwahahahaha. Bwahahahaha. Lacey’s “Landslide” by Stevie Nicks was easily the worst of the night, even worse than the mess Ashley gave us. Key comment:

Randy: “I thought that was terrible.” (But she did have great hair.)

IDOL THOUGHTS

Siobhan Magnus says her favorite male artist is … Hanson. Seriously?

Idol powers-to-be really need to rethink how, when and why they use those background stories. For the most part, they’ve gotten monotonous and take away from the show, especially in the audition and other early rounds. Fewer backgrounds and more auditions. Save the tear-jerking accounts if the wannabe in question makes it to the top 24. That would also eliminate all accusations about Idol giving some performers a special “push” with those background pieces.

Randy only said “dawg” and “check it out” once each Tuesday night.

Did you notice the red Coca-Cola glasses were back in front of the judges?

Is there no censorship at all left on prime time? Kara dropped the “b” word and Paige Miles told us she had not peed in five hours.

Michael Lynche, Crystal Bowersox and Andrew Garcia

FROM AROUND THE IDOL NATION

From the Christian Science Monitor: Olympics coverage … did what no TV show has been able to do in six years – beat American Idol’s ratings last Wednesday night. The Olympics were seen by 30.1 million people, while 18.4 million watched American Idol, according to the Nielsen Company.

From the Chicago Tribune: Crystal Bowersox and Andrew Garcia are the early front-runners … according to a new AOL Television poll. Tuesday night’s two-hour performance show by the top 12 girls featured Bowersox, 24, while the boys’ sing-off on Wednesday will spotlight 24-year-old Garcia. In the poll, Garcia led all vote-getters with 26.2 percent, barely edging out Bowersox, who was second at 25.2 percent. Michael Lynche was third. The poll ran Feb. 18-22 and got 57,682 votes.

From MTV.com: After American Idol announced that, for the first time, it was allowing its semifinalists to maintain a presence on Facebook, Twitter and MySpace, early favorites have emerged. For years, the show has put a virtual headlock on all non-Idol-sanctioned social media, declaring a blackout on any information or correspondence from contestants during their championship run on the show. But after the final 24 were revealed, Fox announced that each of the 24 finalists would maintain multiple online presences.

From Women’s Wear Daily: Howard Stern’s wife, Beth, now gives us her 2 cents on the Howard-to-Idol buzz, “He’s just having fun right now. As someone who gets to watch the show with him every week, I can tell you he is hysterical and brutally honest.”

From USA Today: Andrew Garcia currently is the oddsmakers’ favorite to win American Idol this season. As of Monday morning, SBG Global Sportsbook gives the 24-year-old Moreno Valley, Calif., resident 9:2 odds of becoming the ninth Idol. (That means if you place a $20 bet on Andrew to win, you’ll get back $90 if he does). Should Andrew falter, SBG has a series of women next in line — Katie Stevens at 13:2, Didi Benami and Ashley Rodriguez at 7:1 and Crystal Bowersox at 15:2. If it’s long shots you love, then try Aaron Kelly or Lee DeWyze at 50:1 — or Joe Munoz at a distant 65:1.

(Seated, L-R) Katelyn Epperly, Lilly Scott, Ashley Rodriguez, Lacey Brown, Janell Wheeler and Haeley Vaughn. (Standing, L-R) Didi Benami, Michelle Delamor, Katie Stevens, Crystal Bowersox, Paige Miles and Soibhan Magnus.

(Today we look at the 12 finalists on the girls’ side of the American Idol finals lineup. Up next will be a look at the overall Top 10 heading into Tuesday night’s show.)

Where do you start with this year’s female finalists? There so many quality voices and personalities. It’s the overall depth in the girls’ competition, coupled with the top four on the boys’ side, that make this the deepest Idol finals ever.

What this all means is a tremendous emotional rollercoaster for finalists and fans alike. I can’t wait.

THE FAVORITES

1. Crystal Bowersox (24): For sheer talent and interpretation, Bowersox is incredible. She will also have the advantage of carrying the underdog label because she doesn’t look like a star, which voters traditionally tend to favor. Whether or not she wins this competition — remember, the top six are all on relatively even footing — she should be with us for at least most of the journey.

2. Katie Stevens (17): I have bumped her up a few notches higher than originally planned. I lover her quirky Katie Holmes-esque smile, and she has a natural sort of connection with an audience. Oh, and she can sing, too.

3. Didi Benami (23): She has a Sarah McLachlan/Norah Jones quality about her and the sincerity of her music oozes from every note. She’s definitely a championship caliber play-uh.

4. Janell Wheeler (24): Crystal, Katie and Didi all have a unique, likable quirkiness about them. Janell is more or less a straightforward, here’s-my-talent approach. She may have to try and distinguish herself with song choice or style.

5. Lilly Scott (20): Her platinum hair and sometimes-gaudy outfits sometimes tend to get in the way of a voice that is not as strong as some of the others, but still addictive. Lilly might be the Cyndi Lauper of this year’s competition.

6. Katelyn Epperly (19): This is my longshot among the favorites, but did you ever have one of those hunches you just had to play? This is mine. She has the kind of presence that demands you watch. Now, her voice has to demand that you listen.

THE CONTENDERS

7. Lacey Brown (24): I hope I have to say I underestimated her and that she should have been among the favorites. This is the one contestant outside the favorites among both the guys and girls who I think could go deep into the competition. I am waiting to see how she connects with the audience Tuesday night before moving her into bonafide contender status.

8. Ashley Rodriguez (22): I originally had her in the “favorites” category before seeing her during Hollywood Week. She’s not as ease on stage as I would have expected.

THANKS FOR PLAYING

There is some consolation for Paige Mills (24), Michelle Delamor (22), Haeley Vaughn (16) and Siobhan Magnus (20). In most years, each would have likely been top-six material, but this is not “most years” among the girls.

(Today we look at the 12 finalists on the boys’ side of the American Idol marquee. Up next will be the 12 girls, followed by an overall Top 10 heading into Tuesday night’s show.)

The styles of Andrew Garcia and Casey James are quite different, yet both should be extremely successful and be in the hunt until the very end. John Park and Tyler Grady aren’t far behind, but the rest of this year’s boys field in the American Idol finals seems to pale in comparison.

There are some longshot possibilites, but heading into the first round of eliminations, I’ll be shocked if Garcia, James, Park and Grady are not the eventual final four guys left standing. Here’s our ranking of the dozen guys who emerged from the 110,000 who originally showed up at seven audition sites around the nation last summer:

THE FAVORITES

1. Andrew Garcia (24): His soft, Latino soul has dazzled the judges since we were first introduced to him, and there is little doubt deserves to be No. 1 heading into the finals, but my biggest concern is how he will — or will not — be able to adapt to other musical styles. We’ll be finding out real soon.

2. Casey James (27): Who saw this bluesy tsunami coming from his rather uneventful audition? James has gotten stronger with each performance clip we’ve seen, and there is little question he could win it all. My gut feeling is that he will eventually outshine Garcia, but those two could provide a memorable mano-a-mano musical showdown.

THE CONTENDERS

3. John Park (21): Why haven’t we seen more of this guy after his impressive audition? He may very well deserve to be included am0ng the favorites, but until he takes the stage Wednesday night it’s impossible to know.

4. Tyler Grady (20): There’s something about this good-natured kid from the Boston auditions that everyone seems to like, including myself. His stage presence has admittedly been modeled after such icons as Plant, Daltrey and Morrison. He should be around quite awhile.

THE PRETENDERS

5. Aaron Kelly (16): Aaron forgot his words twice during Hollywood Week, yet the judges put him through. His natural talent demanded it. His voice is reminiscent of a young Vince Gill. If he can remember his lyrics, he could be a dark horse. He could be this year’s David Archuleta.

6. Jermaine Sellers (27): Sellers is smooth and easy to listen to, but needs to develop some more onstage personality.

7. Michael “Big Mike” Lynche (26): As much as I like Lynche, he probably does not deserve to be in the finals. But he’s one of those guys with an infectious spirit and personality. America will vote to keep him around for a few weeks, but I’m pretty sure his shortcomings will eventually demand his elimination.

THANKS FOR PLAYING

Lee Dwayze (23), Joe Munoz (20), Tim Urban (20), Alex Lambert (19) and Todrick Hall (24) have no chance. A few will be able to hang around for awhile — Idol math dictates that — but none are any sort of threat to be the next American Idol.

The theme of American Idol‘s first week of elimination rounds will be “Hot 100 songs” from the Billboard chart. The girls sing Tuesday and the guys on Wednesday.

Here are the ages of the Idol finalists:

Girls
Didi Benami, 23
Crystal Bowersox, 24
Lacey Brown, 24
Michelle Delamor, 22
Katelyn Epperly, 19
Siobhan Magnus, 20
Paige Miles, 24
Ashley Rodriguez, 22
Lilly Scott, 20
Katie Stevens, 17
Haeley Vaughn, 16
Janell Wheeler, 24

Guys
Lee Dewyze, 23
Andrew Garcia, 24
Tyler Grady, 20
Todrick Hall, 24
Casey James, 27
Aaron Kelly, 16
Alex Lambert, 19
Michael Lynche, 26
Joe Munoz, 20
John Park, 21
Jermaine Sellers, 27
Tim Urban, 20

The Top 24

I’ve thought about this and thought about this,  and then I thought about it some more.

I looked over the final 12 guys and final 12 girls so many times I can recite them in order of selection, age, birth date and hometown. So remember that when you examine what I am about to say.

This is the deepest American Idol finals field in history, and this will be the most entertaining competition since the show’s inception.

Here’s why:

1. I count 10 finalists — that’s almost half — who have a bona fide chance at being the next American Idol. There is no one, two or maybe three individuals heading into the finals who are obvious head and shoulders above their peers.

When Idol powers-to-be changed their format and decided to show us more of Hollywood Week, it help build judgments and allowed us to better gauge what the finals might hold. I applaud the change in this year’s approach.

2. Wouldn’t the lack of that obvious standout talent be a detriment? No, because instead of one, two or three of those types we have — again, by my count — 10 of them.

THE FINAL 12 GUYS

Today I’ve simply listed the final 12 with the obvious indication of who I think ahs the potential — at this point — to win the competition. Before next week’s elimination rounds begin, I’ll break things down a little deeper.

Andrew Garcia COULD WIN IT ALL
Casey James COULD WIN IT ALL
John Park COULD WIN IT ALL
Tyler Grady COULD WIN IT ALL
Michael Lynche
Joe Munoz
Alex Lambert
Todrick Hall
Aaron Kelly
Tim Urban
Jermaine Sellers
Lee Dewyze

THE FINAL 12 GIRLS

This is definitely the Year of the Female on Idol, at least as far as overall depth in talent, but we’ll also get more into that in a few days. For now, just the names:

Crystal Bowersox COULD WIN IT ALL
Katie Stevens COULD WIN IT ALL
Didi Benami COULD WIN IT ALL
Janell Wheeler COULD WIN IT ALL
Katelyn Epperly COULD WIN IT ALL
Lilly Scott COULD WIN IT ALL
Lacey Brown
Ashley Rodriguez
Paige Mills
Michelle Delamor
Haeley Vaughn
Siobhan Magnus

THE DISAPPOINTMENTS

I thought there were three girls cut that were top-12 worthy: Angela Martin, Tori Kelly and Mary Powers. I think they could have (should have?) been among the final dozen in place of Vaughn, Delamor and Magnus. But in fairness to the judges, this year’s girls field was simply incredible and I can’t bash the final 12 too hard.

MEMORABLE REMARKS

Some of the contestants’ thoughts Wednesday night illustrated why this show is so special to so man, from the participants to crazy fans like me:

Angela Martin, after she was cut: “I can’t give up. That’s not an option. Music … heals me.”

Janell Wheeler: “I don’t think anything is as hard as American Idol. Nothing’s like American Idol.”

Lilly Scott: “I’m so stoked. I’m so thankful. This is it for me. I can’t screw it up. This starts an incredible journey.”

Andrew Garcia, after learning he is in the final 24 (as if there were ever any doubt): “This is for my son, this is for my family. I’m just trying to provide for them … (he breaks down, then apologizes for letting his emotions get the best of him and says) … I’m usually a cool guy.”

Danny Gokey

IDOL THOUGHTS

I hate to beat a dead horse — well, actually I don’t — but isn’t it a pleasure to listen to all of the judges be able to express themselves without the constant interruption of the departed Paula Abdul?

Congrats to former Idol finalist and Academy Award winner Jennifer Hudson, who has lost 56 pounds in order to play South Africa’s Winnie Mandela for the upcoming film Winnie.

Remember Danny Gokey from a year ago? The third-place finisher has decided to try to carve out a career in country music. I have to admit that one’s a surprise. I thought he had “adult contemporary” written all over him, maybe even the new Michael Bolton?

Is it just me, or is it hard to believe the elimination rounds begin next week? This season is going way too fast.

FROM AROUND THE IDOL NATION

From Michael Slezak, Entertainment Weekly: Such is the frustrating (but not unexpected) yin and yang of the Idol experience. For every David Cook, there’s a Kristy Lee Cook. For every cool new song cleared for usage (howdy, Coldplay!), there’s a seeming insistence that every third contestant cover either Colbie Caillat’s ”Bubbly” or Michael Jackson’s ”Man in the Mirror.”

From TV Fanatic: She can sing and she can look beautiful … but can Carrie Underwood act? How I Met Your Mother viewers will be able to answer this question in a couple weeks, as the American Idol champion guest stars on March 1. Underwood will portray Tiffany, a woman suspected of stringing Ted along.

From Idolbattles.com: Speaking of musicians and elite talents, we have to start with Andrew Garcia. Everything he’s done so far has been brilliant. Looking at his only pre-Idol stuff, he’s not a fluke and is going to be a contender, if not the favorite this year.

From USA Today: So what does 2009 runner-up Adam Lambert think of Ellen DeGeneres as an American Idol judge so far? “I haven’t watched it yet,” he told E! earlier this week at the G-Star fall fashion show in New York.