Poll shows Sullivan with solid lead over Frese

Posted by dwilson – May 16, 2012

Anzone Liszi Research has completed a voter survey that shows Sen. John Sullivan, D-Rushville, with a commanding lead over Republican challenger Randy Frese of Paloma.

A summary of the poll shows that Sullivan held a 60 percent to 25 percent edge over Frese on a toss-up question about who respondents plan to support in the election. Survey respondents who identified themselves as Democrats favored Sullivan by an 86 percent to 4 percent margin over Frese. Independents were 40 percent for Sullivan and 16 percent for Frese. Meanwhile, 48 percent of Republicans favored Frese, while 41 percent favored Sullivan.

The poll did offer information on both candidates, but the followup responses were not significantly different than the toss-up responses.

There are two big things to point out about the poll. At least 15 percent of respondents said they have not yet decided how they will vote in November. In addition, Sullivan’s favorable responses of 62 percent versus unfavorable of 13 percent indicated he would be tough to beat if the election were held today.

Things can and do change as elections draw close. Frese will be watching what votes Sullivan makes in the Legislature as the session winds down.

Sullivan has an edge not only in this poll. He held an eight-to-one edge in campaign cash on hand after the most recent reporting cycle and as an incumbent has very high name recognition.

Sen. Mark Kirk returns home, works to recover

Posted by dwilson – May 8, 2012

Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., returned home this week after nearly three months in therapy after a serious stroke.

A video promoted on Kirk’s campaign site shows some of Kirk’s rehabilitation therapy. In another place, Kirk said he’s working hard to get back enough mobility to return to the U.S. Senate. He said he must negotiate 45 steps to reach the Senate and has used that as an incentive to keep working.

Joe the Plumber becomes Joe the Candidate

Posted by dwilson – May 4, 2012

Joe Wurzelbacher — better known as Joe the Plumber after his famous, video-recorded grilling of candidate Barack Obama in 2008 — is still stirring things up in the political realm.

Wurzelbacher is a Republican candidate for Congress in Ohio. He is challenging 15-term incumbent Democrat U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur in a district that is packed with Democrats.

While political analysts believe Wurzelbacher will have a tough time winning his race, they also believe he will help engage Republican voters in his important swing state.

Wurzelbacher, who visited Pike County, Ill., last year, has a penchant for saying things that get attention. In March he said that anyone who voted for the Affordable Care Act “has committed treason.” He recently claimed that Obama’s mother was an atheist and both the president’s parents were communists — something that Wurzelbacher’s campaign manager later admitted could not be substantiated.

Candidates who say controversial and often incorrect things do capture attention. Wurzelbacher is not the first, the last or the worst offender. It will be interesting to see how he does with voters and whether his attention grabbing statements are a positive or a negative for his party.

Sullivan, McCann talk pensions, Medicaid

Posted by dwilson – May 4, 2012

David Thomas of the Springfield State Journal-Register did interviews with both state senators from the area this week. His story is linked here.

Neither Sen. John Sullivan, D-Rushville, or Sen. Sam McCann, R-Carlinville is committed to Gov. Pat Quinn’s pension plan that would boost the retirement age to 67 and add at least 3 percent to employee contributions.

Medicaid cuts by Quinn drew a different response. McCann said he would oppose Quinn’s plan, but wants Medicaid access limited to U.S. citizens.

Sullivan does not know how he would vote on the plan and is worried about adult dental services, which would be eliminated by Quinn.

Both men oppose Quinn’s funding idea of an additional $1 tax on each pack of cigarettes.

Campaign staffer sends briefing memo to news media

Posted by dwilson – April 27, 2012

Dave Spence has not caught fire as a GOP candidate for governor in Missouri, but there may be some flames licking at his heels after a campaign staff member inadvertently sent a briefing memo to the news media instead of to Spence.

Spence has a business background and has found the transition to political campaigner a little tough. He has blurted out a few things he shouldn’t have said and failed to add anything useful on other topics upon which he should speak.

A campaign worker/adviser hoped to lead Spence through the mine field with a briefing paper on how to respond if the news media asked him about his previous comment that President Obama is probably a Muslim. Her advice was to say that Obama says he is a Christian and then add that Spence takes him at his word.

She also wrote a comment for Spence on the Missouri Senate budget debate. Then she recommended Spence turn the discussion to a lack of leadership by incumbent Gov. Jay Nixon, a Democrat.

All that might have worked better had the email not gone to members of the press who were supposed to get an advisory on where Spence would be campaigning.

For those who want more on this, long-time St. Louis political reporter Jo Mannies’ column on the topic is linked here.

Senate candidates boost fundraising

Posted by dwilson – April 25, 2012

Illinois Senate candidates raised a combined total of $151,000 during the first quarter, with incumbent John Sullivan, D-Rushville, holding a two-to-one advantage over Republican Randy Frese of Paloma. Sullivan held nearly an eight-to-one edge for cash on hand.

Frese raised $47,553 during the quarter and had $41,774 on hand at the end of March. Sullivan raised $103,515 and ended the quarter with $326,814.66 on hand.

Sullivan, like many incumbents, got lots of his contributions from political action committees. His D-2 report linked here shows a mix of business, professional and union contributions which generated $79,350. Caterpillar Inc., the Illinois Trucking Association and Illinois CPAs for Political Action are listed along with the Illinois Federation of Teachers and Southern Central Ill. Laborers among the donors.

Sullivan’s individual contributions of $20,550 are linked here.

Frese got a $10,000 contribution from the Republican Central Committee out of Macomb and $250 from the Cass County Republican Central Committee as shown here.

In addition, Frese had 56 itemized individual contributions linked here that totaled $28,299, including seven family members named Frese.

Sullivan also received $1,009.83 from BNSF Railroad earlier this week.

The dollars don’t tell all of the story in political campaigns, but they’re interesting.

Politico analyst says tea party not part of GOP

Posted by dwilson – April 23, 2012

James Hohmann wrote an analysis piece for Politico last week after the Republican National Committee completed its annual meeting in Arizona.

One of his major themes is that tea party adherents have to rise through the ranks within the Republican party apparatus just like everyone else. Jack Kimball’s story is used as an example of what can happen when someone is put in a leadership position for which they are not prepared.

Kimball was elected as the New Hampshire Republican chairman, but resigned after he failed or refused to lead on several fronts. Fundraising crumbled, special elections were lost and Kimball signed an election petition for a Libertarian candidate.

The larger theme of the essay is that the tea party is more like any of the constituencies in the Republican party, such as defense hawks or fiscal conservatives.

Happy reading.

Sullivan: Regionalism often trumps politics

Posted by dwilson – April 10, 2012

State Sen. John Sullivan, D-Rushville, told an audience in Liberty Monday night that divisions in the Illinois Legislature revolve around regionalism more than politics most of the time.

“It’s not so much politics on 90 percent of what we deal with. It’s regionalism and trying to get our fair share” of services and funding, Sullivan said.

His comments came after several questioners had opined that liberalism or Chicago’s influence in the state capitol had put Illinois in its current financial straights. Sullivan said he often does not agree with other members of the Senate Democratic leadership, choosing to seek what he sees as best for those living in Western Illinois.

Likewise, Sullivan said the lawmakers who are in Chicago or any other area, try to look out for their constituents’ interests.

It’s a different world, with Sullivan representing about 210,000 residents of a district that measures 6,000 square miles in Western Illinois, while one Senator in Chicago represents 6 square miles, with a similar number of constituents.

Members of Congress banned from insider trading

Posted by dwilson – April 4, 2012

It may have looked like a “Duh?” moment to most people, but President Barack Obama has signed a law that outlaws insider trading by members of Congress.

The law, of course, was passed by members of Congress. It has been proposed before, but finally got favorable treatment in an election year. It remains to be seen whether doing the right thing will improve approval ratings for Congress which hover at between 12 and 19 percent — depending on the wording of the survey.

The STOCK Act is an acronym for Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge. It requires public disclosure of transactions exceeding $1,000.

Americans say individual mandate unconstitutional

Posted by dwilson – March 26, 2012

Gallup conducted a poll last month and found that 72 percent of Americans believe the individual mandate, which requires every American to buy health insurance or pay a fine, is unconstitutional.

Public opinion is not supposed to play a part in the U.S. Supreme Court hearings on the Affordable Care Act of 2010, which take place through Wednesday. The justices are supposed to focus strictly on whether the health care law violates the U.S. Constitution.

Streaming audio of the arguments today through Wednesday, are available at the Supreme Court’s website (www.supremecourt.gov)

A breakout of poll results shows that 70 percent of independents and 56 percent of Democrats think the health care law goes beyond the constitutional authority granted to Congress. Another question in the poll elicited a 72 percent response that the health care law will make things worse, or won’t help the nation.