Month: November 2009

Schilling poll shows mixed progress against Hare

Posted by – November 30, 2009

Bobby Schilling, a Republican running for Congress in the 17th District, sent out a press release Sunday touting a poll that shows U.S. Rep. Phil Hare facing some anger from voters.

The poll, conducted by We Ask America and commissioned by Quincynews.org, showed that 47 percent of respondents would vote not to send Hare, a Democrat, back to Congress. Another 40 percent of respondents would vote for Hare and 13 percent were undecided.

Schilling, a businessman from the Quad Cities area, was not mentioned as a candidate. So this was not a heads-up poll. Gregg Durham, the pollster, said it was a generic test of voter discontent.

“I don’t think that you can tell from that poll that Mr. Hare is in trouble. I do think there’s the potential for trouble,” Durham said.

That did not keep Schilling campaign manager Bill Hanford from painting the poll as a signal that Schilling will be a formidable challenger.

“This recent poll has raised quite a bit of excitement among our campaign volunteers and supporters,” Hanford said.

Polls of this type are good ways to learn what issues are top-of-mind for likely voters. In this case, jobs is the top concern by a wide margin. Government spending and health care reform are other top issues.

Congress itself is the issue for lots of people and that bodes well for challengers. If Schilling can raise enough money to get his name recognition up and his message out, that will help against Hare. If Schilling’s fundraising isn’t so good, an incumbent, even in this tough year for incumbents, will have an advantage.

McKenna campaign ad allows Quinn to cry foul

Posted by – November 24, 2009

Somebody in Illinois gubernatorial hopeful Andy McKenna’s campaign staff took things too far with an advertisement that appeared Monday.

The television ad flashes the words “Quinn hides truth” next to “Chicago Tribune” and 11/18/09. The problem is that nowhere in the Tribune’s coverage of a debate with Dan Hynes in that day’s Clout Street blog do the words “Quinn hides truth” come up.

When contacted by reporters, McKenna’s spokesmen said the comments were a fair representation of the news coverage, rather than a direct quote. Quinn was quoted in the blog as saying his administration has a record of “missions accomplished” in ethics and getting things done for ordinary people. Lance Trover, a campaign spokesman said that representation by Quinn hides the truth.

Elizabeth Austin, communications director for Quinn, fired back.

“We need leaders with real plans to create real jobs, not political ads with made-up facts or quotes from non-existent news stories,” Austin said.

This won’t be a train wreck for the McKenna camp because it happened so early in the campaign. But it should be a wake-up call for someone who designed and approved the ad.

Campaign consultants are supposed to create ads that make the opponent the story. They fail when they make their own candidate part of the story.

In this case the non-quote fiasco won’t be fatal, but it’s the campaign equivalent of “friendly fire” in combat. And anybody who has been hit by friendly fire can attest that the wounds hurt just as much as if they were inflicted by the enemy.

Bobby Schilling plans a pair of events in area

Posted by – November 11, 2009

Bobby Schilling, a Republican candidate in the 17th Congressional District, is holding a meet-and-greet in LaHarpe on Thursday and a fund-raiser in Quincy on Saturday.

The fund-raiser at the Twin Oaks Club is a hog roast — giving Schilling a chance to talk about “pulling the pork out of Washington.”

Schilling notes in his campaign material that he has 13 years of union experience and served as a local union steward. The owner of a popular pizza parlor, St. Giuseppe’s Heavenly Pizza in Moline, Schilling points out that he is both a business owner and a former union member. The point is that he’s pro-business without being anti-labor.

Schilling, 45, also is pro-parent. He and his wife, Christie, have nine children and are expecting No. 10.

Will Hirner’s address hurt challenge against Schock?

Posted by – November 11, 2009

Deirdre “D.K.” Hirner of Springfield, Ill., is a Democratic candidate for the 18th Congressional District in Illinois, but she does not live in the district.

Under the law, that is not a problem. Any Illinois resident can file as a candidate in any of the state’s U.S. House districts.

During Hirner’s visit to Quincy on Monday she said her residency will not be an issue.

“I do not think this race is about a town or an address. It’s about ideas … and about who will represent the entire district,” Hirner said.

If Hirner wins the Democratic nomination against Carl Ray in the February primary she will challenge U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock, R-Peoria. So her home address may come into play in a different way.

Roughly half of Springfield is in the 18th District. The remainder is in the 19th and 17th districts. So if voters are casting parochial ballots — supporting candidates who live close to them — Hirner would only benefit from about half of Springfield’s population.

Taking that parochial scenario just a bit further, those who live closest to Springfield might identify more with Hirner and would be more likely to vote for her. But that parochial influence declines with distance.

Schock, on the other hand, is from Peoria which is in the center of the northern third of the 18th District. So he benefits more if voters are parochial in November 2010. He lives in a large city that dominates a large part of the district, compared to Hirner living in a city that is split by district boundaries and her greatest sphere of influence is on the edge of that district.

Hirner is right, political campaigns should be about ideas. But in the real world voters decide to support candidates they know, and like. They vote against those they know and don’t like or don’t know well. Some voters are swayed almost entirely by the candidate’s party. And some voters will support candidates from their immediate area.

If Hirner becomes the Democratic nominee, she may face some campaign ads that paint her as a non-resident. That may not be a big deal to most people, but it’s something she cannot ignore entirely. And using campaign funds to respond is not something any challenger would welcome.

“Any time you go against an incumbent it’s more difficult” than running heads-up against another candidate in an open district, Hirner said during her Quincy visit.

Schock’s office declined comment on Hirner’s assertions about the freshman House member’s voting record. Until a primary winner is declared, they do not see a benefit in responding to everything would-be challengers have to say.

That’s a luxury for Hirner in the short run. It’s a luxury Schock’s office will not be able to maintain in the long run.

Cap & Trade part deux moving in U.S. Senate

Posted by – November 5, 2009

A climate bill, that calls for cutting carbon emissions from power plants and factories by 83 percent by 2050, has been pushed through a U.S. Senate committee without any votes from Republicans.

The bill is a revision of the cap and trade legislation passed by the House earlier this year. The legislation’s name is taken from the capping of carbon emissions — where allowable levels are lowered each year — and the trading of carbon credits for those businesses that cannot meet the carbon limits.

U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer of California is chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee and called for a vote today after it had been delayed due to Republican concerns about the costs of the legislation. The measure passed out of committee 10-1 with no Republicans voting.

Sen. James Inhofe of Oklahoma, the ranking Republican on the committee, was quoted by The Associated Press as saying the legislation is a “nuclear option” that could harm the nation’s economy.

Debate over the cap and trade legislation has been contentious in Congress and shows a huge difference of opinion between Americans over the theory of global warming.

Sen. Dick Durbin tells of a meeting with farmers who wanted him to explain his support for the climate bill. They asked him why he would support legislation that would hike the price of electricity and factory-produced goods. He asked them in turn whether they believe that carbon dioxide and other manmade exhaust can affect the climate. None of his visitors raised their hands.

Durbin said as long as there is not agreement on man’s influence on the climate, the cap and trade legislation will be viewed as government meddling.

Illinois gubernatorial candidates getting busy

Posted by – November 2, 2009

Andy McKenna, a businessman and former state GOP chairman, was scheduled to file his candidate petitions for Illinois governor today.

Former Republican nominee Jim Ryan is supposed to be launching a campaign as well, according to published reports.

While those two vie for the GOP nomination, Democratic frontrunners Gov. Pat Quinn and Comptroller Dan Hynes are ripping into each other.

Hynes got his advertisements out first, framing Quinn as someone who signed a flawed budget into law before complaining about it being billions of dollars short. Quinn has struck back saying that Hynes has signed every check issued by the state even as he complains about spending priorities. (There’s parity on some level there, with both accused of signing and complaining.)

McKenna’s first advertisement featuring the hair of impeached Gov. Rod Blagojevich — sitting on the heads of several political types — is an attempt to make the issue about the failure of Democrats to lead.

It’s going to be an entertaining election year.