Month: July 2010

Rasmussen poll shows Brady leading Quinn 44-37

Posted by dwilson – July 29, 2010

Rasmussen Reports conducted a poll Monday that shows Republican Bill Brady with a seven percentage point lead over Democrat Pat Quinn in the race for governor.

The poll of 750 likely voters has a statistical sampling error of plus or minus 4 percent with a 95 percent level of confidence. Its results are bolstered by several other polls that show similar results.

Rasmussen’s breakdown of the poll results shows that Brady does especially well with male respondents, edging Quinn out by 13 percent. The two candidates virtually split the vote among women. Brady is supported by 88 percent of his fellow Republicans and Quinn is favored by 61 percent of his fellow Democrats.

The poll results came out the same day state newspapers reported that Quinn’s budget director, David Vaught, believes the Legislature will pass an income tax increase in January. The Illinois personal income tax rate is 3 percent and could go to 4 percent or 5 percent under proposals made by Quinn during the past two years.

State Rep. Tom Cross, R-Oswego, said such a tax increase would take $6 billion from Illinois taxpayers.

The next poll’s results might favor Brady even more, if people see the tax proposal as Quinn’s plan and if they believe Brady’s argument that the state’s $13 billion deficit can be cured by cuts alone.

Conspiracy charge most damning for Blagojevich

Posted by dwilson – July 26, 2010

As ousted governor Rod Blagojevich’s trial moved into closing arguments today, the defense team was making much of the fact that Blagojevich is “broke” and is not accused of making one dime off of naming a successor to Barack Obama’s vacated Senate seat.

Defense attorney Sam Adams Jr. plans to argue that the prosecution did not prove its case against Blagojevich.

Uh, Sam, what about the conspiracy charge?

When someone goes on trial charged with conspiracy to commit murder, you don’t have to prove there was a murder. If law enforcement officials are doing their jobs well, the conspirators are caught before anyone dies.

In a corruption case where conspiracy is part of the charge, you don’t have to show that money was received, only that such an ongoing conspiracy existed.

When Blagojevich was arrested in December 2008, U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald made it clear that he was moving forward in order to keep Blagojevich from making a tainted selection.

Also, let’s keep in mind the particularly damning testimony of former top Blagojevich official Lon Monk. The former college roommate, chief of staff, campaign manager, and fundraiser for Blagojevich testified there was a definite connection between campaign contributions to the Friends of Blagojevich and government jobs, etc. Deputy governor Bob Greenlee also testified about the illegal orders he received from Blagojevich.

A conversation between Blagojevich and his chief of staff, John Harris, painted the Senate appointment as Blago’s best chance to cash in.“You understand, it’s very important for me to make a lot of money. I need independence. I need freedom,” Blagojevich said in wiretapped conversations.

Everybody has talked endlessly about Blagojevich not testifying in his trial. With all the incriminating tapes, Blagojevich testified eloquently — for the prosecution.

Schilling campaign’s poll shows him over Hare

Posted by dwilson – July 20, 2010

A poll conducted by Magellan Strategies for Bobby Schilling’s congressional campaign has him leading U.S. Rep. Phil Hare 45 percent to 32 percent.

The automated survey was conducted July 12 and more than 700 responses were then weighted to reflect historic county turnouts for the November election. The result is supposed to have a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

Hare’s campaign may question whether the poll was worded in a way that would tend to push responses in a specific direction. They also do not care for Magellan Strategies, which is considered a Republican firm.

The poll results still should be troubling for the incumbent. Even if this was not a toss-up polling unit, the Democrat leaning 17th District has been seen for the past eight years as a safe place for U.S. Rep. Lane Evans and now his successor. If a poll of any type can show a 13-point lead for a first-time GOP challenger, this represents a major sea change in the district’s politics.

Quinn seeks Illinois primary without party declaration

Posted by dwilson – July 13, 2010

Gov. Pat Quinn used his amendatory veto power Tuesday to change an election reform law so it would allow voters to cast ballots in primary elections without declaring a party affiliation.

That action is not expected to stand up in the Legislature’s veto session late this year.

Under the Quinn proposal, voters would still only be able to vote one party ballot — either Democratic, Republican or Green — but would do so in the privacy of the voting booth. Quinn said his man goal is to eliminate the need for prospective voters to tell election judges their party affiliation. He said that would help bring more voters out for primary elections.

“With my recommendation today, a voter’s partisan preference will no longer be known to others. The decision to cast a primary ballot for one party or another will be strictly a matter of personal choice,” Quinn said.

Rikeesha Phelon, press secretary for Senate President John Cullerton, sent out a thinly veiled message that Quinn’s amendatory veto will not be popular with lawmakers.

“The Senate president is generally supportive of measures designed to increase voter participation. However, the General Assembly will conduct a compliance analysis to determine if the governor’s actions today alter the fundamental purpose of the original bill,” Phelon said.

Translation: “We don’t think the governor can use the amendatory veto to legislate. The power to make laws is reserved for the General Assembly.”

The original bill that Quinn amended would require that the Illinois State Board of Elections produce a voters guide for primary elections. These guides are already required in general elections.

Poll shows coin flip between incumbents, challengers

Posted by dwilson – July 6, 2010

Marist Poll has survey results that suggest members of Congress should be worried about the mood of voters.

Respondents were asked how they would vote if the November elections were held today. A plurality of 43 percent said they would vote for someone other than the incumbent. Those supporting their incumbents represented 42 percent of respondents, with 15 percent undecided.

Party label made a difference in the poll. A majority of Democrats — 55 percent — support their incumbents. A majority of Republicans — 52 percent — plan to vote for a challenger. Nearly half — 49 percent — of independents say will vote for someone new.

These numbers closely resemble the responses to a Marist Poll survey done in March, when anti-incumbent fever was even higher.

Polls such as these indicate that incumbents won’t be bulletproof in the way they are during most election cycles. The election of 2010 may be shaping up as a repeat of the 1994 election when Democrats lost seats and Republican gained majority status in Congress.

One weakness of these polls, however, is that it deals with general dissatisfaction with Congress and not with specific incumbents.

Does U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock, R-Peoria, have to worry about a majority of his Republican constituents ousting him in favor of Democrat challenger D.K. Hirner? Probably not.

Can Phil Hare, D-Rock Island, depend on the Democratic slant of his district to avoid a tough campaign fight against Republican challenger Bobby Schilling? Probably not.

Independent voters will once more wield plenty of influence in the voting booth.

Illinois has tougher penalties on excessive speeding on the books

Posted by dwilson – July 5, 2010

Gov. Pat Quinn signed late last week new laws that will toughen the penalties for speeding or affect safety laws in other ways.

Starting Jan. 1., a new category of excessive speeding will be in place for drivers going 30 to 39 mph faster than the speed limit. Currently, a speeder has to drive 40 mph faster than the posted limit before excessive speeding rules take effect.

Senate Bill 3796 will amend the Illinois Vehicle Code to allow drivers going 30 to 39 mph faster than the limit to face fines of up to $1,500 and up to six months in jail. The fines increase to $2,500 and a year in jail for those going 40 mph or more beyond the speed limit.

The new law also won’t allow those convicted of driving more than 40 mph in excess of the speed limit to receive “court supervision,” which have previously allowed many to keep the charges off their driving records after a short probationary period.

Two other traffic laws will require drivers to fasten the seat belt of any front seat passengers who are unable to do so, and allow municipalities with low-density areas to decrease maximum speed limits from 35 mph to 25 mph.