Month: August 2010

Hare, Schilling debate how, where to hold election debates

Posted by dwilson – August 30, 2010

U.S. Rep. Phil Hare, D-Rock Island, and Bobby Schilling, the Republican challenger in the Illinois 17th District, don’t agree on much. They have proved that with a debate about … debates.

Schilling challenged Hare earlier this month to a series of four debates in the Quad Cities, Springfield, Quincy and Macomb. Hare countered last Friday with a plan to have two debates that would be covered on public television through the district.

“I am offering you the following: 2 hour-long in-studio debates in October on public television — WQPT-Quad Cities and WSEC-Springfield — that will be moderated by an agreed upon neutral party,” Hare wrote.

Hare noted that WQPT reaches the Quad Cities media market and WSEC-WQEC-WMEC reaches Springfield, Quincy, Macomb and Decatur.

“Combined, these debates will encompass all of the areas you requested and then some and can be available to affiliates across the district,” Hare said.

Schilling responded Monday that limiting the debates to in-studio public television events would shortchange the public. While Schilling agreed that a neutral moderator is needed, he believes a live audience should be allowed to attend with each camp getting the same number of tickets.

“The 17th District consists of over 650,000 people and five media markets. I don’t think that two debates carried by just two TV stations is fair to the voters,” Schilling said.

Both men have said the debates should be based on issues, not hyperbole. Hare said that “requires avoiding some of the hyper-partisan atmospheres that have unfortunately dominated our public discourse” during the past year. Schilling said Hare’s friendship and support from Gerold Grubel, president of Network Knowledge which licenses WSEC-WQEC-WMEC, would not provide a level playing field.

Debates, whatever their form, would beat this back and forth with press releases.

Polls show Brady with big lead, tight race for Senate seat

Posted by dwilson – August 25, 2010

A Rasmussen Reports poll shows Republican nominee Bill Brady maintains a healthy lead in the Illinois governor’s race.

Alexi Giannoulias

Alexi Giannoulias

Poll respondents favored Brady over Gov. Pat Quinn by 46 percent to 37 percent. That margin has been in line with other polls going back months that have shown Brady with everything from a 5 percentage point lead to a 12 percent lead.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Alexi Giannoulias has a slight lead over Mark Kirk. The 42-40 margin for Giannoulias is within the sampling margin of error for the poll. Those results, too, are similar to other indicators that the Illinois race for U.S. Senate may well come down to which candidate surges at the end or which candidate stumbles close to the Nov. 2 election.

Giannoulias has problems after the family’s bank declared bankruptcy and his supervision of loans to underworld figures were publicized. Kirk created his own problems by embellishing on his resume through campaign web sites.

Both Kirk and Giannoulias seem intent on smearing the other guy and giving the opponents plenty of ammunition to retaliate.

Back to the governor’s race.

Bill Brady

Bill Brady

If there’s one thing that should concern Brady’s camp, it is that he’s not broken that magical 50 percent mark that cements a win. On the other hand, there is a third candidate in the race, Green Party nominee Rich Whitney.

After one recent poll, Whitney sent out press releases heralding the results when 10 percent of the respondents suggested they would vote for him. In fact, the wording of the poll gave respondents plenty of opportunities to vote for neither Brady or Quinn.

Quinn’s recent problems with the resignation of chief of staff Jerry Stermer, who had turned himself in for using office e-mail to send three campaign-related messages, and the dismissal of the inspector general who investigated Stermer have crippled the Democrat’s chances at winning this fall.

At this point, Bill Brady is the only one who could give Quinn a win. It would take a pretty big mistake by Brady to drive that many votes to Quinn.

Schilling announces town halls, seeks debates with Hare

Posted by dwilson – August 20, 2010

Bobby Schilling, the Republican challenger in the 17th District congressional race, wants to debate U.S. Rep. Phil Hare four times — in Quincy, Macomb, Springfield and the Quad Cities.

Maggie Depoorter, political director for Hare, said the debates are under consideration.

“Congressman Hare looks forward to debating Mr. Schilling on the issues. He is currently reviewing the proposal from the Schilling campaign. In due time, he will respond with a proposal of his own that ensures that the voters of this congressional district are fully informed about the candidates’ positions, Depoorter said.

Schilling’s press release includes the issues he believes are important in the race.

“Since 2006, the unemployment rate has doubled, the national debt has grown by over $5 trillion and the tax burden for the middle class has become insurmountable,” Schilling said.

Schilling’s campaign also has announced that he will hold 10 town hall meetings across the district in the next 70 days. Quincy and Macomb also are on the list of expected sites for the events, but have not yet got firm dates.

Dates have been set for Rock Island’s Longview Park at 6 p.m., Aug. 26, Illinois City Community Center at 7 p.m. Sept. 2, Galesburg’s Lake Storey at 4:30 p.m. Sept. 7 and Rock Falls Community Building at 7 p.m. Oct. 18.

Blagojevich only the latest convicted felon to claim innocence

Posted by dwilson – August 18, 2010

The Rod Blagojevich verdict — guilty on one count and a mistrial on 23 counts — was a surprise to me.

But with only one juror standing between the disgraced governor and truly hard time in prison, my money is on a lot more convictions.

After he was convicted of lying to federal investigators, which can still get him five years in prison, Blagojevich told reporters that the jury had somehow delivered a verdict in his favor. This kind of tortured logic from Blagojevich was not a surprise to me. This is the same guy who once said that a 100 percent vote against him in the Illinois House was a victory for him.

The bottom line here is that Blagojevich is a convicted felon. He’s going to face more federal charges again, and he will get a chance to explain how more convictions are actually … uh a vote of confidence in him.

Fortunately for Blagojevich, he doesn’t care what I believe. He doesn’t care what anybody else believes.

It’s also important for people not to talk about “a broken judicial system.” It didn’t fail in this case. It is the best system around, and it gives a jury of our peers the ability to decide cases. In cases where the jury becomes deadlocked, judges can, and do, call mistrials. Judge Zagel did that in this case, allowing the prosecution to try Blagojevich again.

The prosecution’s case will be handled differently the next time around. The tapes with Blagojevich profanely telling everyone he needed money, a better job or “something good” for his appointment of a U.S. senator, were powerful. The complicated explanations in other parts of the trial were not effective.

Will Blagojevich testify next time? I won’t make a prediction there. I believe his testimony would be poison for the defense, but my opinion probably won’t be sought by his team of lawyers.

Bad blood in Missouri primary aired in police reports

Posted by dwilson – August 11, 2010

Lots of political candidates take campaign experiences very personally.

Chris Blank, a reporter for The Associated Press, has a riveting story about bad blood between state Rep. Brian Nieves, R-Washington, Mo., and Shawn Bell, the campaign manager for Dick Stratman who ran an unsuccessful campaign in the GOP primary that Nieves won Aug. 3. Bell is seeking an order of protection against Nieves after an incident he said happened when he went to offer congratulations to Nieves after the primary.

The heart of Blank’s story reads:

“In the statement to police that The Associated Press obtained Monday, the 24-year-old Bell said he stopped by Nieves’ campaign after the primary to offer congratulations to an aide there, but Nieves threw him up against a wall. Then, Nieves pulled a black gun out of his pocket and set it on a table and said he was going to kill Bell, according to the statement. Nieves later calmed down and said he wouldn’t kill him or put him in the hospital.”

Nieves did not immediately return calls seeking comment left at his home and campaign office.

The statement goes on to say that Nieves checked Bell for a recording wire before head-butting him and slapping him several times. Then he dragged Bell into a kitchen area and ordered him to remove his shirt and get on his knees and beg for forgiveness.

Nieves told Bell everyone needs a “threaurapeutic” fight in which they get beat up, but instead of fighting him, ordered him to walk into an office. Nieves then started reading text messages on Bell’s cell phone and began writing down what some said. Nieves also told Bell to call his wife and apologize because she was hurt by some of the rumors circulating during the campaign, according to the report.

Bell, who lives in Jefferson City and works for a political consulting firm there, referred a request for comment to his attorney. The attorney said he had spoken with Bell but had not officially been retained to represent him.

In the statement filed with police, Bell said Nieves told him he would let him leave if didn’t tell anyone about the incident and suggested Bell call him periodically to improve their relationship. Bell said he was shaken up.

“I really thought when he pulled out the gun that I was going to die,” Bell wrote.

Nieves, who is term-limited out of the House, is running in the 26th District Senate race in Franklin, Warren and part of St. Louis County. He will face Democrat George “Boots” Weber in November.

Nieves might have been a favorite to replace Sen. John Griesheimer, R-Washington, in that seat, which has been in Republican hands for several years. But this kind of publicity might make voters think twice about Nieves.

Politico story probes tea party’s shortage of campaign cash

Posted by dwilson – August 10, 2010

Kenneth Vogel writes a detailed analysis of the tea party’s search for the finances to launch major advertising campaigns in the upcoming election.

After reading half the first of four pages, I was not certain the report was going to live up to the opening premise that many “tea party activists are concerned that their efforts … are being undermined by a shortage of cash …” But Vogel back-loaded the story with lots of quotes from top conservatives and tea party leaders who talk about their efforts and the future of the movement.

One recurrent theme is that tea party fundraising is problematic because many of the movement’s ardent supporters are suspicious of the corrupting influence of money and feel burnt and betrayed by parties, national leaders and even top candidates who hi-jack what starts out as a noble cause.

What Vogel overstates is his view that the tea party will sputter and die if it is nothing more than a loose grass-roots movement. Millions of voters are engaged in the process this year and will make a difference in the November elections. That kind of immediate feedback will be a strong incentive for tea party members to stay involved — with or without financial backing.

Commentator asks whether Obama’s success will cause his failure

Posted by dwilson – August 3, 2010

David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union, writes an especially good opinion column in The Hill that looks at how presidents react when they learn that the public does not fully buy into their agenda.

Keene said as voters, taxpayers and members of the American public have expressed their opinions about big government — largely through slumping popularity ratings for Obama — the president has not reinvented himself like Bill Clinton did. Keene said Obama has been more like Richard Nixon, who simply tried to accomplish his goals behind the scenes.

George W. Bush’s problems also are mentioned by Keene, who believes that Obama faces an even bigger public relations challenge than Bush.

With the mid-term elections right around the corner, this analysis delves into the psychology of politicians who want to accomplish their goals, without sacrificing their popularity.