Month: September 2010

Polls give snapshots of top races in Illinois, Missouri

Posted by dwilson – September 29, 2010

A new poll by the Tarrance Group shows Republican challenger Bobby Schilling ahead of U.S. Rep. Phil Hare by a 44-43 margin. The poll’s findings were released by the Republican National Committee this morning.

The only other poll involving the 17th District that has been made public was conducted Sept. 8 by WeAskAmerica. It showed Schilling up 3 percent over Hare. In both instances the results are within the margin of error — denoting a dead heat.

These polls will help determine how much funding Schilling gets from Republican committees in coming weeks. In the same way, they could determine whether Democrats give money to Hare’s campaign to defend what had traditionally been considered a safe seat for the Democrats.

Other poll results are worth mentioning.

Illinois U.S. Senate — Mark Kirk is considered up 2 percent over Alexi Giannoulias after a Pulse Opinion Research poll last weekend. A Rasmussen poll showed Kirk up 3 percent on 9/21, a WeAskAmerica poll showed him up 3 percent on 9/13 and a Chicago Tribune poll showed the race tied in polling done 8/28-9/1.

Missouri U.S. Senate — Roy Blunt is considered up over Robin Carnahan. That comes from Rasmussen’s 8 percent lead for Blunt on 9/21. The Daily KOS/PPP had him up 7 percent 8/14-15, KY3/Missouri State Univ. shows Blunt up 1 percent 8/2-22. The Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon showed Blunt up 6 percent 7/19-21.

Illinois Governor — Bill Brady leads Pat Quinn by 10 percent in last weekend’s Pulse Opinion Research poll.  WeAskAmerica showed Brady up 10 percent on 9/13. Rasmussen showed him up 13 percent on 9/12 and Chicago Tribune showed him up 5 percent 8/28-9/1.

Senate fails to overrule change in voting rules for unionization

Posted by dwilson – September 29, 2010

Senate Democrats have allowed a rule change to stand that will make it easier to unionize workplaces that were previously non-union.

The National Mediation Board recently changed the definition of  a majority in union votes for airline and railroad workers. For the past 75 years it took a majority of those working at a business to approve unionization. Under newly minted NMB policy the standard has been changed to a majority of those casting ballots on a particular issue.

Unions say the reinterpretation of the “majority of a unit” wording actually improves the democratic process by assuring that the majority rules.

Kimberly Freeman Brown, executive director of American Rights at Work, said the old rule treated all non-voting people as “no” votes. She said if that was the assumption in U.S. elections and all non-voting people were considered to be voting in favor of incumbents it would be seen as a “nonsensical process.”

Management supporters say the rule change means that a motivated minority can now foist its will upon unwilling participants.

Katie Gage, a conservative columnist for Townhall, said the new rule will make it easier for union supporters to drum up support while relying on other workers — who presumably don’t want union representation — to turn out in smaller numbers.

“With the NMB’s new rule, it’s possible – even likely – that labor bosses would intimidate a small percentage of employees into staying home or voting in their favor. And as long as the majority of those who show up to vote do so in support of Big Labor, the entire company must follow suit and bow to union boss contract demands,” Gage wrote.

This issue is getting more attention than it might in previous years due to the stalled push for the “card check” legislation. Card check would have allowed union organizers to turn in business cards on which they would have workers “cast a vote to unionize.” Democrats who hold a majority in both the U.S. House and Senate couldn’t get all their members to support that change during the past year, leaving the “card check” bill on life support.

The NMB’s rule change is seen as a test of what might be acceptable in Congress and with U.S. voters.

The National Mediation Board is a three-member body, with two Democrats and one Republican — who has expressed his vehement disagreement with the rule change.

Blunt-Carnahan race in Missouri gets bogged in mud, inaccuracies

Posted by dwilson – September 22, 2010

An advertisement by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee that erroneously blasts U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt for “building a million-dollar home” in Washington D.C., is one small example of the advertising excesses and bad blood in the race for the U.S. Senate in Missouri.

Blunt is the Republican nominee for the seat that U.S. Sen. Kit Bond is vacating. Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is the Democratic nominee. They don’t care for each other, and their campaign supporters have been especially careless with some of their ads.

Blunt’s wife, Abigail controls a trust that bought a vacant lot in Washington in 2008 for about $1.5 million. Now the trust is seeking to sell the lot for $1.6 million, and the price includes a set of architectural drawings for a home that could be built there.

The DSCC denied that their ad is false, but had to agree that the Blunts have not built a house there. They didn’t explain the disconnect, but argued that broadcasters should keep running the ads.

Carnahan’s campaign staffers called newsrooms this week to tell reporters that Blunt has “not been doing his job in Washington” while he does fundraising for the campaign and “earning $170,000 a year” for being a member of Congress. A caller to The Quincy Herald-Whig told how Blunt missed a vote that is needed by Missouri cooperatives. When pressed, the woman admitted that the legislation won overwhelming approval, even without Blunt there to vote for it.

So what harm did cooperatives suffer due to Blunt’s absence?

The campaign worker couldn’t bring herself to admit that Blunt’s vote — or the lack of a vote — made no difference on the issue. But she did offer to send along information on the legislation.

She didn’t suggest that Carnahan would be getting more than $170,000 if she was elected, since that apparently was something that voters ought to know about and be outraged about … at least when it involved Blunt.

Now in Carnahan’s defense, she has been more consistent about being on the job as Secretary of State during the election cycle. But then, she could be anywhere within the state during work hours and still be close to fund-raising events or campaign events.

Blunt has run ads blasting Carnahan as someone who would be a rubber stamp for President Barack Obama, and the ads have mentioned Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who have strong negative numbers in Missouri polling. Carnahan ran a rebuttal ad reminding Blunt that he’s running against her, not those other Democrats.

Carnahan has more recently used an old interview broadcast on FOX News to paint Blunt as a Washington insider who has failed to reform the system. FOX wants the ads dropped. Carnahan has refused.

The flurry of bad campaign ads may only be starting. A Rasmussen Reports poll on Sept. 7 showed Blunt with a 10-point lead in the race. A poll by the Global Strategy Group released this week showed the two candidates tied at 37 percent. It was immediately questioned by Blunt’s camp, because the polling was done for the Missouri Democratic Party.

Advertising campaigns “move” voters. The negative ads are still popular with political consultants, so the smears and attacks will keep coming through November 2.

Sheila Simon questions poll showing Dem candidates trailing

Posted by dwilson – September 15, 2010

Sheila Simon, the lieutenant governor candidate running with Gov. Pat Quinn, told Illinois Statehouse News that she doesn’t see that she and Quinn are way behind among likely voters downstate.

“I’d challenge anyone who says that we are trailing badly downstate. I’ve been campaigning all over the state, and I’ve been getting a good response wherever I’ve been,” Simon told Benjamin Yount.

Simon was responding to questions about recent polls that all show Republicans Bill Brady and Jason Plummer leading Democrats Quinn and Simon among likely voters. A Rasmussen Reports poll released early this week shows Brady with a 50-37 edge.

The geographic breakouts are even more striking, with the Republican nominees leading by 25 percent downstate.

Simon was asked about the poll since she is a professor at Carbondale and might be expected to have some idea how things are going in the campaign and particularly downstate.

The problem with that idea is that candidates get wrapped up in a bubble of supporters during campaigns. They get constant, positive feedback from backers. Even in this day of in-your-face politics, the opposition does not get noticed nearly as much by candidates as the hard-line supporters.

Candidates are the last people who will know how well, or how badly, a campaign is going.

As much as everyone gets sick of polls or treats certain poll results as suspect, they give respondents a chance to be truthful.

Imagine a grandmotherly lady answering a knock on her door. Standing in front of her is a candidate for office. She smiles as the candidate asks for her vote. She shakes the hand he offers her and thanks him for stopping by. As the candidate walks away, he thinks he’s just won a vote. Inside the house, the woman wonders whether that man knows she is the mother of his opponent.

Smiles and kind words happen in polite society. When pollsters call, people drop the polite and don’t worry about whether their answers will hurt someone’s feelings.

New polls show GOP with edge in regional U.S. Senate races

Posted by dwilson – September 9, 2010

Rasmussen Reports has new poll results showing Republicans in Illinois and Missouri with leads in the U.S. Senate races.

Polling in Missouri shows U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt with a 51-40 lead over Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. That’s a slight uptick for Blunt from a previous poll that showed him with a 50-43 lead.

In Illinois, U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk had a slight edge — 41-37 — over Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. That’s a change from a previous poll showing both candidates with 40 percent support.

A previous poll had Kirk and Giannoulias tied at 45 percent when “leaners” were included. Polling that includes leaners is often used late in election cycles. To poll for leaners, a phone call begins in the usual manner, with people asked who they are likely to support in the November election. Next, those who say they don’t know are asked which candidate they are leaning toward.

Giannoulias was trailing Kirk by a larger margin before President Barack Obama campaigned for his fellow Democrat in Chicago last month. Obama’s old Senate seat is at stake. While Illinois traditionally leans Democratic, the bad economy and frustrated voters have made this a close race.

Obama’s campaigning in the Midwest, however, may have hurt Carnahan in Missouri. Likely voters in the Show-Me state are more frustrated with federal spending and health care legislation than a representative nationwide sampling. One Blunt campaign advertisement points out that Obama told a Democratic rally that he needs Carnahan’s vote in the Senate to move the party’s agenda forward.

GOP learns from left, promotes pre-election film

Posted by dwilson – September 8, 2010

Back in 2004 Michael Moore released “Fahrenheit 9/11″ to boost the election prospects for Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry. Although he called it a documentary, Moore’s critics called it out as a naked attempt to smear George Bush and drag out every delusional conspiracy theory there was about 9/11, the war in Iraq and the nation’s Republican leadership.

This year conservative film-maker Ray Griggs is releasing “I Want Your Money” as a blend of cartoon, documentary and newsreel styles. It takes aim at Barack Obama and the Democratic leadership in the U.S. House and Senate. Much of the content involves comments from conservative experts who talk about the massive stimulus program, the health care bill and other parts of the Democratic agenda.

Andrew Breitbart, the conservative commentator who runs a blogging empire, has often opined that conservatives need to learn from the liberals about how to get political messages out through films, the internet and other means. It appears that his suggestions have been taken to heart by Griggs.