The Census Bureau will release its official state population totals on Tuesday, and with it the allotment of U.S. House seats and Electoral College votes for the next decade. The Cook Political Report has Illinois as one of 10 states “on the bubble” for the final five House seats, although most expect Illinois to lose one of its 19 seats.

Eliminating the gerrymandered 17th Congressional District has been a popular theory. Bobby Schilling, who unseated incumbent Phil Hare in November, is one of four freshmen Republican congressmen state Democrats — who will control the redistricting process — could target.

From The Cook Political Report:

But what might be better for Democrats than eliminating Schilling’s 17th CD altogether? They could actually make it even more Democratic than it already is. How? First, the 17th CD could give away its only heavily Republican area, Quincy (Adams County), to the safely Republican 19th CD. Then, it could combine Rock Island (Schilling’s home) and Springfield from the current 17th CD with Democratic-leaning Peoria in the 18th CD (sophomore GOP Rep. Aaron Schock’s home) to create a Democratic “supermajority” district. This might force Schilling and Schock into a primary for a seat that would be an uphill battle in a general election. And even if either Schock or Schilling were to prevail in the general, Democrats will have succeeded in “carving out” a Republican. A downstate Democratic dream scenario is depicted here:

Kent Redfield, a political science professor at the University of Illinois at Springfield, tells the Belleville News-Democrat that the 17th District makes the most likely target for Democrats who want to redraw a Republican seat out of existence, while beefing up Democratic numbers in the Chicago suburbs.