Category: Reapportionment

Weiner finally fesses up after a week of denials

Posted by dcrim – June 7, 2011

In this week’s case of men behaving badly, U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner finally acknowledges that he engaged in sexually charged exchanges on the Internet with a half-dozen women during the past three years. As USA Today points out, social media networks have opened up new possibilities for missteps — and for quick and dramatic exposure of such scandals.

The New York Daily News dubs Weiner “Congressman Creep” in an editorial, arguing that his days in Congress are numbered.

It seemed inconceivable that Anthony Weiner was not just a bald-faced liar but a relentless, calculating, remorseless and aggressively pugnacious bald-faced liar. But that’s who Weiner was last week, lying interview after lying interview after lying interview.

Meanwhile, in Illinois, Gov. Pat Quinn  is expected to launch the first salvo of the 2012 redistricting wars by signing a bill that creates new congressional districts for the state. In a typical election, it should yield a 12-6 Democratic edge, with a possible 13-5 edge in a wave year. This would represent a loss of five Republican seats, more than reversing the GOP gains made in 2010. Consider: Democrats have to pick up 24 seats to retake control of the House. With this map, they are roughly 20 percent of the way there.

If map holds, Republican congressional gains could be short-lived

Posted by dcrim – June 2, 2011

Since Republicans are charged with drawing congressional maps in many key states, ranging from North Carolina to Ohio, Democrats needed to make Illinois count if the party expected to make up for expected redistricting losses elsewhere. Politico reports that appears to be the case.

Just seven months ago, Republicans were euphoric over the capture of four seats in a blue state dominated by Democrats for decades. Now, with the new map expected to be signed into law by Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, they’re staring at the prospect of losing every one of them and more — a handful of promising freshmen and maybe even a veteran congressman, too.

Among those expected to be vulnerable are first-termer Bobby Schilling in the 17th District. Things might have played out differently had Republican Bill Brady not tried to coast to the finish line in last year’s gubernatorial race, apparently figuring he could ride the GOP wave into the governor’s mansion.

Cook Report: Redistricting could merge Schilling, Schock districts

Posted by dcrim – May 18, 2011

The new legislative maps for Illinois are expected to be released by the end of this week — possibly on Thursday — and the Cook Report has this prediction for our region:

• Republican Reps. Bobby Schilling (R-17) and Aaron Schock (R-18) are likely to be merged into one super-Democratic district stretching from Rock Island to Peoria and Galesburg. Schilling would be the “majority stakeholder” in such a new district, and his best hope would be for Schock to abandon his Peoria home base and run in a neighboring seat, though the general election would still be daunting. Schock could conceivably run against freshman GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who lists his home in Kankakee County but originally hails from the Bloomington-Normal area.

Could Illinois Dems put Schock and Schilling in same district?

Posted by dcrim – December 20, 2010

The Census Bureau will release its official state population totals on Tuesday, and with it the allotment of U.S. House seats and Electoral College votes for the next decade. The Cook Political Report has Illinois as one of 10 states “on the bubble” for the final five House seats, although most expect Illinois to lose one of its 19 seats.

Eliminating the gerrymandered 17th Congressional District has been a popular theory. Bobby Schilling, who unseated incumbent Phil Hare in November, is one of four freshmen Republican congressmen state Democrats — who will control the redistricting process — could target.

From The Cook Political Report:

But what might be better for Democrats than eliminating Schilling’s 17th CD altogether? They could actually make it even more Democratic than it already is. How? First, the 17th CD could give away its only heavily Republican area, Quincy (Adams County), to the safely Republican 19th CD. Then, it could combine Rock Island (Schilling’s home) and Springfield from the current 17th CD with Democratic-leaning Peoria in the 18th CD (sophomore GOP Rep. Aaron Schock’s home) to create a Democratic “supermajority” district. This might force Schilling and Schock into a primary for a seat that would be an uphill battle in a general election. And even if either Schock or Schilling were to prevail in the general, Democrats will have succeeded in “carving out” a Republican. A downstate Democratic dream scenario is depicted here:

Kent Redfield, a political science professor at the University of Illinois at Springfield, tells the Belleville News-Democrat that the 17th District makes the most likely target for Democrats who want to redraw a Republican seat out of existence, while beefing up Democratic numbers in the Chicago suburbs.